March 5, 2007

About three years ago, Greg Welch at exec-search firm Spencer Stuart completed research showing that the tenure of the average CMO of a public corporation was 23 months. Here's some more recent news: It looks like little has changed. In the past few months, several high-profile senior marketing people have slipped out the revolving door-something which could easily become a metaphor for the CMO post itself.

In fact, there's some question as to what CMO stands for these days. Possibly: "Career Must be Over."

Will the bloodshed stop? Probably not anytime soon. And there's a very good reason why. Let's go back into ancient history (about 15 years ago, to be exact) and take a look at another senior post that also went through a painful transition: the CIO, or chief information officer.

In the early '90s the running joke was the CIO stood for Career Is Over. People laughed. But few suspected it would be a harbinger for what marketing chiefs are suffering now.

At that time, client-server (PC based) technology, better operating systems and improved software were steamrolling the legacy systems built around custom software and IBM mainframes. By unplugging those behemoths, IT costs could immediately be cut 30-40%. The incumbent CIOs born and bred in the old order simply couldn't make the transition fast enough, so they were replaced. In droves.

Yet this transition period was short. By the mid to late '90s a new generation of CIOs had become established, client-server and packaged software systems implemented, and turnover dramatically reduced. (And the "Career Is Over" joke stopped getting laughs.)

Today, senior-level marketing people, especially CMOs, are in a pickle that looks a lot like the one CIOs were in a decade ago-and that's why their heads are rolling. Chances are, your average CMO today grew up in a mass-media world of TV and print ads. As the media world continues to shatter into specialized slivers-thanks to the Web, personalization (TiVo, iPod, etc.) and the proliferation of channels-this old model is starting to remind me of, oh, say, an IBM mainframe.

It only follows: Is there hope that turnover among CMOs will, just as it did for CIOs, soon slow down? Unfortunately, I have to think, no-because of one crucial difference between the two scenarios. The solution to the former problem was clear: Replace hardware and software, cut costs. But with today's CMOs, there's no clear solution. What will replace traditional mass-media marketing? As long as there's no knee-jerk response to that question, I predict the rumble of rolling heads will continue.

Certainly, though, some options show promise. Microtargeting-sending unique messages and offers to individuals-is starting to get some traction, as is "mini-marketing"-places lots of small messages all over the place to intercept customers as they snack on bits of media day and night. There's also "cut-through marketing," which uses guerrilla tactics to slice the clutter. Lastly, "engagement marketing" has gotten some attention (often under the less specialized name of customer-driven content). Yet no clear winner has emerged from these contenders. And with no clear replacement in sight to the increasingly obsolete mass media model of marketing, the CMO's future remains as uncertain as Web sites that promise to make a profit.

The CMO's rough ride may be prolonged, but periods like this also create new and exciting possibilities. Out of this chaos will eventually come new ways to succeed in marketing, new options for consumers and new opportunities for adaptable companies. Keep the faith: one of these days, CMO will probably even stand for chief marketing officer again.

Tom Aganis managing director of the New York office of Penn, Schoen and Berland, a marketing consulting and research firm. He may be reached at tagan@ps-b.com

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