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The strong grip of pessimism
 

POLITICO By Mark Penn - September 22, 2010

While the stock market continues its recovery, suggesting that investors have become more optimistic, the voting public remains in the firm grip of pessimism and their negative outlook shows no signs of receding as we head into the midterms. In the latest POLITICO poll, 54 percent of the voters believe we are headed for a second recession, believing this by a two to one margin with only 25 percent who believe we will avoid a double dip.

This pessimism is highly correlated with political party identification. Republican voters show fear a second recession by a five to one margin, far greater than any other group. This of course leads to the unanswerable chicken-and-egg question: Are voters pessimistic because they are Republicans or are they Republicans because they are pessimistic?

On the flip side, Democrats are relatively optimistic - while 39 percent believe that a double dip will happen, another 37 percent believe it we will avoid it. Independent voters, critical to the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections, hold the middle ground. Their level of pessimism is roughly the same as the overall population, with 54 percent concerned about another recession.

When looking at other demographic factors, it becomes clear that political views are the driving force. Beyond party lines, this negative outlook is present across all demographic groups. Level of pessimism is roughly the same across all age groups, from Boomers to Millennials, contrary to the classic notion that younger voters are more hopeful.

This pessimism is also common across income levels: higher income voters (those earning at least $100,000/year) are relatively optimistic, but 43 percent still think a second recession will happen. The same is true of gender: women are particularly pessimistic about the likelihood of a second recession, believing it will happen by a three to one margin, but men are not far behind.

Black voters are more optimistic - 44 percent believe we can avoid a double dip, compared to 20 percent of white voters. But this relative optimism is in line with political views, bringing us back to the fact that party affiliation is inextricably linked with this pessimistic state. The one group most confident that the economy is not headed for a second recession is D.C. Elites, who believe this by an almost two to one margin. This is one of the biggest disconnects between the beltway and Main Street, and is also related to the strong support for Obama in D.C.

This pessimism spreads beyond economic fears. 72 percent of voters believe that our political system is broken. 61 percent feel that things in our country are off on the wrong track. Only 21 percent believe that the U.S. effort in Afghanistan will succeed. Republicans are particularly likely to hold these pessimistic views of our government, but the pattern is visible across the political spectrum.

The selection of tea party nominees for the Senate has in general caused a pause in the march of the Republicans this year as voters wonder when the Republican Party has moved too far to the right. This has given Democrats new hope that they can turn this election around in the final days here. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to doing just that is the iron grip of pessimism that binds the country and affects our politics. Move that and it will move the election.