POLITICO  - December 14, 2010

She told you so.

Washington elites, it turns out, do look down their noses at Sarah Palin.

The former Alaska GOP governor has been saying it for more than two years now, and a new POLITICO poll released Wednesday suggests she's right.

Just 11 percent of the D.C. elites surveyed said they believe Palin is qualified to be president, less than half of the general public - 23 percent - who believe the same. Eighty-six percent of Washington elites - roughly 9 out of 10 - think Palin is not qualified, compared with 64 percent of the general public.

In addition, 79 percent of Washington elites believe Palin is a "negative influence in national politics" while just 15 percent find her to be "a breath of fresh air." Outside the nation's capital, however, more than twice as many believe she has had a positive impact on politics, while 50 percent see her as a negative influence.

"Palin is a populist-oriented phenomenon drawn heavily from lower middle-class voters, but she also deliberately comes off as anti-intellectual and anti-Washington, so it is no surprise she does not play in the Beltway," said Mark Penn, CEO of the polling firm Penn Schoen Berland, which conducted the survey for POLITICO. "Elites almost everywhere are turned off by her and some of the very things she does that attracts her core support."

Washington elites' low opinion of Palin was also clear when those surveyed were asked who is "most likely to win" the Republican nomination in 2012.

Former Massachusetts GOP Gov. Mitt Romney is by far the Washington elites' prediction, as 30 percent believe he is most likely to win the nomination. Palin is the next closest among Washington elites but trails Romney by 19 percentage points. Following Palin are former Arkansas GOP Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Mississippi GOP Gov. Haley Barbour, both of whom were picked by 5 percent of D.C. elites.

While Washington expects Romney will be the nominee, the rest of the country views Palin as the front-runner: 18 percent of the general public rated her as "most likely to win" the GOP nomination, a higher percentage than anyone else in the potential field.

Romney was the only other likely candidate to be picked by more than 10 percent of those polled, getting 13 percent.

Gingrich, Huckabee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul follow Palin and Romney among the general public and are the only other candidates to get picked as most likely to win by more than 1 percent of those polled.

Fifty-one percent of the general public said they "don't know" who will win the GOP's nomination in 2012.

Washington elites are defined in the poll as those who live within the D.C. metro area, earn more than $75,000 per year, have at least a college degree and are involved in the political process or policymaking.

The poll, the last in the six-month "Power and the People" series, is the latest survey to show a wide-open presidential field - and signs of trouble for President Barack Obama.

Only 24 percent of D.C. elites and 32 percent of the general population are satisfied with the current lineup of possible GOP candidates. Among those in Washington, 65 percent are dissatisfied with the Republican presidential crop, compared with 34 percent of the general public that feels the same.

And confidence that the president will win reelection is dropping. The share of D.C. elites who believe Obama will be reelected fell from 49 percent in November to 38 percent in December. An even lower percentage of those outside Washington think the president will get reelected - 28 percent - nearly unchanged from the 26 percent that said the same a month ago.

As for the prospect of a primary challenge, 51 percent of the general public and 33 percent of Washington elites think Obama will face one.

The poll suggests that it might take some time for the president's political stock to rise.

When asked about the upcoming State of the Union address, only 44 percent of the general public said they intend to watch and just 30 percent said it will have a positive impact on how Obama is perceived.

Among independents, those numbers are even worse: Just 32 percent of those polled said they will be watching the SOTU speech, and 22 percent believe it will have a positive impact.

There is widespread agreement on what the content of the speech should be - a strong majority in Washington (65 percent) and the general public (68 percent) think the central focus should be "improving the economy and creating jobs," a figure that far outpaces "reducing the deficit," "bipartisanship in Washington" and "the war on terrorism."

The new Republican leaders in Congress face their own issues.

When asked, "Are you confident that Republicans in Congress will be effective leaders?" only 28 percent of the general public and 17 percent of D.C. elites said yes.

Washington elites were more skeptical than the rest of the nation about the ability of Republicans to be effective leaders: 73 percent of D.C. elites compared with 46 percent of the general public.

The "Power and the People" poll is based on two Internet surveys conducted Dec. 3-8. For the general population data, 1,000 people were surveyed nationwide with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Two-hundred twenty-five Washington elites were polled, and that sample has a margin of error of 6.53 percentage points.